{"id":1499,"date":"2026-01-09T16:31:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T16:31:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aguasamargas.com\/the-san-juan-river-and-the-historical-agency-of-small-nations\/"},"modified":"2026-01-10T15:22:33","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T15:22:33","slug":"the-san-juan-river-and-the-historical-agency-of-small-nations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aguasamargas.com\/en\/the-san-juan-river-and-the-historical-agency-of-small-nations\/","title":{"rendered":"The San Juan River and the historical agency of small nations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"\">This analysis would not be complete &#8211; nor would it be intellectually honest &#8211; without recognizing the lens from which it is written. The gaze is that of a Costa Rican aware of the shared history, complex and at times confrontational, with Nicaragua. A history that can no longer be approached solely as a legal or diplomatic problem, but as a <strong>strategic knot of memory, sovereignty and future projection<\/strong>.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">The work developed over the years, culminating in the trilogy <em>Las Aguas Amargas del San Juan<\/em> and the digital project aguasamargas.com, is not only a literary exploration of the past. It is, above all, a <strong>case study on how historical narratives -or their absence- condition the capacity for action of states<\/strong>, especially small nations, in contexts of geopolitical transformation. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">The San Juan River is not simply a river border. It is a <strong>living symbol<\/strong>: of contested sovereignty, of selective memory, and of a collaborative potential that, for more than a century, has been systematically neglected. <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-del-diferendo-bilateral-al-punto-de-presion-geopolitico\"><strong>From bilateral dispute to geopolitical pressure point<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"\">In the context of the new hemispheric order that is beginning to take shape &#8211; marked by growing tensions between blocs, the reconfiguration of U.S. power and increasingly coordinated responses from the so-called Global South &#8211; the relationship between Costa Rica and Nicaragua is no longer a peripheral bilateral issue.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">The Caribbean-Central America axis is once again acquiring strategic relevance. In this scenario, <strong>the San Juan emerges as a pressure point<\/strong>, not for its immediate military value, but for its symbolic, legal and logistical value. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">An obvious risk arises here: <strong>the external instrumentalization of an unresolved historical conflict<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-el-peligro-de-la-instrumentalizacion\"><strong>The danger of instrumentalization<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"\">In scenarios of regional tension, unresolved historical disputes become useful tools for external actors. For a revisionist power, exacerbating the San Juan dispute could function as a mechanism of distraction or indirect destabilization. For a hegemonic power in relative retreat, presenting itself as the exclusive guarantor of Costa Rican security -a country without an army- could justify new forms of political interference or strategic presence in the region.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">In both cases, <strong>local agency is diluted<\/strong>. The story ceases to be its own tool and becomes someone else&#8217;s argument. <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-la-necesidad-imperiosa-de-agencia-historica-propia\"><strong>The imperative need for its own historical agency<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"\">Therefore, this analysis argues that <strong>this is a critical moment -perhaps unrepeatable- for Costa Rica and Nicaragua to reorder their relationship based on sovereignty and mutual interest<\/strong>, not on forced alignments with external blocs.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">A genuine agreement on the San Juan River, based on the recognition of shared rights &#8211; navigation, environmental protection, sustainable development, binational management &#8211; would be much more than a diplomatic achievement. It would represent an act of <strong>strategic soft power<\/strong>, a demonstration of historical maturity and an affirmation that small nations can also exercise leadership when they act with intelligence and memory. <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-una-catastrofe-evitable\"><strong>An avoidable catastrophe<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"\">It would be a tragic irony &#8211; and a historic defeat for all of Central America &#8211; if, after centuries of coexistence and shared conflict, the fate of the relationship between Costa Rica and Nicaragua were to end up being dictated by the logic of a new Cold War.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">To allow the San Juan dispute to become a <strong>proxy for conflicts between great powers<\/strong> would be to give up the fundamental right to write our own future.<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-el-verdadero-ocaso-necesario\"><strong>The true necessary sunset<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"\">This geopolitical analysis is marked by a personal conviction, forged in the study of archives, newspapers and in the patient observation of the river itself: the true <em>necessary decline<\/em> is not that of one country or another, but that of <strong>the inherited paradigms of external domination and automatic confrontation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">The possible future of Central America depends on recovering <strong>historical agency<\/strong>: the capacity of nations -large and small- to resolve their complexities with their own vision, before the whirlwind of global interests decides for them.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"\">This is the ultimate motivation of my writing, both in historical fiction and strategic analysis: to <strong>contribute to a future where the history of Central America is once again written, thought and decided by Central Americans.<\/strong><highlight style=\"border-radius: 3px; background: rgb(255, 226, 63);\"><\/highlight><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This analysis would not be complete &#8211; nor would it be intellectually honest &#8211; without recognizing the lens from which it is written. The gaze is that of a Costa Rican aware&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1508,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The San Juan River and the historical agency of small nations - Las Aguas Amargas del San Juan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aguasamargas.com\/en\/the-san-juan-river-and-the-historical-agency-of-small-nations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The San Juan River and the historical agency of small nations\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This analysis would not be complete &#8211; nor would it be intellectually honest &#8211; without recognizing the lens from which it is written. 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